🔗 Share this article

Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension triggered by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.

The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare

The succession of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: hopeful statements are issued from various governments. Significant resources is allocated on managing certain initiatives. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "peace".

Nocturnal Warfare

As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from Russian territory, a ability afforded by current data. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been scrambled to counter approaching guided weapons roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.

Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: several firings deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably provided by partner states. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly becomes sober acceptance: perhaps the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from devastation and further power outages.

Persistent Threats

Following this, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely Western-made equipment. Sadly, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its objective.

Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, damage and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a dependence that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to substitute in the short term.

Failed Diplomacy

The detailed framework from Washington generated strong feelings, discussion and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.

Every new approach from US leadership unfolds according to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, no doubt, continue.

Strategic Calculations

It is convenient to criticize certain parties of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership functions according to a assumption familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration assumes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to abandon the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.

The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does minimal to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from assuming that the situation will not change more in its advantage in the months ahead.

Divergent Views

Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the conclusion.

On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing people and territory but preventing a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its benefit.

Present Conditions

Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not move to domestic problems. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.

These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.

Summary and Prospects

It took a just a single week to kill the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.

While new initiatives based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.