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Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.

That represents the warning from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Establishments Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."

New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion

The duo have examined the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.

"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly split population where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have won."

Legal Framework

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.

Lack of Substantive Discussion

Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.

"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in universities but very few elected officials or activists want to engage even with the basics. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. Both writes two articles that seek impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.

Discussions cover identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and encourage dialogue.

"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Debate indicates an recognition of the concept that there might be valid points on both sides."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they favour unification but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.

"The Irish government must establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.

Probability of Public Vote

McBride thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent official who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has has important lessons to acquire from the other's viewpoints."

Call for Broader Dialogue

Westminster must participate in the debate, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."